Monday, December 20, 2010
Are We Headed Toward Economic Recovery?
by JOHN YDSTIE
Government data suggests consumers are emerging from their shells: Layoffs are declining, and the bulls on Wall Street are snorting that the stock market is poised for a long upward charge.
And this week, President Obama signed an $859 billion package extending Bush-era tax cuts and jobless benefits.
But, the jury's still out on whether we've reached a tipping point to a self-sustaining recovery.
John Silvia watches the economy like a hawk from his perch as chief economist for Wells Fargo. He says reports on industrial protection and retail sales for November that came out this week are encouraging.
"Both of them suggest the economy actually is doing quite well. So in the fourth quarter of this year we're probably going to have growth of around three-and-a-half percent," Silvia says.
For him, the figures indicate we are in a sustainable recovery, though he admits for many people it's not the traditional economic recovery or economic boom.
"You know I think it's still tough," says Christmas shopper Jeanine Bachman. "I mean, you hear where things are getting better, but then you turn around and hear somebody's lost their job, so, you know."
Many holiday shoppers are going for sales items and looking for the best bargain.
"We're definitely more conscious of things," says shopper Kate Redenbaugh. "You know we're shopping sales and making sure we get the best pricing and, you know, if you have to make one more stop instead of doing it all in one place we might make multiple stops if it saves us some money and stuff.
"I think it's still shaky."
But for Brant Pierson things aren't quite as tight.
"Last year we cut back, but this year we're sittin' a little better. So, we're going to open up a little bit this year to make up for last year," he says.
Pierson is an example of Americans who are doing better and spending more. Many of them are well-off Americans who patronize luxury shops.
"The high-end retailers are knocking it out of the park," says Patty Edwards, chief investment officer and a retail specialist at Trutina Financial in Bellevue, Wash. "And they are having one heck of a good time right now."
Edwards says high-end stores are doing better because well-off shoppers are seeing the value of their investments and 401(k)s rise as the stock market moves up.
Things are different for middle-class and lower-income Americans, she says.
"The consumer can't come back fully with 9 or 10 percent unemployment. The consumer can't come back fully if they can't get a loan, and right now they can't get a loan," Edwards says.
Those issues, along with the foreclosure crisis, were on the mind of Federal Reserve policymakers this week. After their regular meeting Tuesday they called the recovery "disappointingly slow." And they surprised some of the economic optimists by saying they'll continue injecting extraordinary amounts of money into the economy.
Obama, Like GOP, Wins, Loses In Tax-Cut Deal
In signing the tax-cut extension into law, Obama failed to keep a key campaign vow. So did the GOP.
That's fine with Dyke Messinger of PowerCurbers Inc., in Salisbury, N.C. The company builds machines that make curbs and gutters for streets and highways.
"We're still down about 50 percent from where we were; the drop being mostly U.S. residential and commercial construction," he says.
With construction in the dumps, the U.S. demand for Messinger's machines has largely come from federal stimulus spending for infrastructure. He's worried about what will happen to orders when that fades in the next few months.
But, there is one bright spot: foreign sales.
"Our hopes for international business this coming year are really quite high. We think we can put another 20 percent on the top because of what's going on in the rest of the world," he says.
Foreign sales have been good for a lot of big U.S. multinationals, too, from MacDonald's to Hewlett Packard. That's behind the recent big jump in the stock market, which has seemed somewhat out of sync with progress in the U.S. economy.
Whether the U.S. recovery is self-sustaining remains in question. But the new tax package, with a couple hundred billion dollars in added stimulus, should help it gain traction.
-From NPR's website
http://ping.fm/9AXX3
by JOHN YDSTIE
Government data suggests consumers are emerging from their shells: Layoffs are declining, and the bulls on Wall Street are snorting that the stock market is poised for a long upward charge.
And this week, President Obama signed an $859 billion package extending Bush-era tax cuts and jobless benefits.
But, the jury's still out on whether we've reached a tipping point to a self-sustaining recovery.
John Silvia watches the economy like a hawk from his perch as chief economist for Wells Fargo. He says reports on industrial protection and retail sales for November that came out this week are encouraging.
"Both of them suggest the economy actually is doing quite well. So in the fourth quarter of this year we're probably going to have growth of around three-and-a-half percent," Silvia says.
For him, the figures indicate we are in a sustainable recovery, though he admits for many people it's not the traditional economic recovery or economic boom.
"You know I think it's still tough," says Christmas shopper Jeanine Bachman. "I mean, you hear where things are getting better, but then you turn around and hear somebody's lost their job, so, you know."
Many holiday shoppers are going for sales items and looking for the best bargain.
"We're definitely more conscious of things," says shopper Kate Redenbaugh. "You know we're shopping sales and making sure we get the best pricing and, you know, if you have to make one more stop instead of doing it all in one place we might make multiple stops if it saves us some money and stuff.
"I think it's still shaky."
But for Brant Pierson things aren't quite as tight.
"Last year we cut back, but this year we're sittin' a little better. So, we're going to open up a little bit this year to make up for last year," he says.
Pierson is an example of Americans who are doing better and spending more. Many of them are well-off Americans who patronize luxury shops.
"The high-end retailers are knocking it out of the park," says Patty Edwards, chief investment officer and a retail specialist at Trutina Financial in Bellevue, Wash. "And they are having one heck of a good time right now."
Edwards says high-end stores are doing better because well-off shoppers are seeing the value of their investments and 401(k)s rise as the stock market moves up.
Things are different for middle-class and lower-income Americans, she says.
"The consumer can't come back fully with 9 or 10 percent unemployment. The consumer can't come back fully if they can't get a loan, and right now they can't get a loan," Edwards says.
Those issues, along with the foreclosure crisis, were on the mind of Federal Reserve policymakers this week. After their regular meeting Tuesday they called the recovery "disappointingly slow." And they surprised some of the economic optimists by saying they'll continue injecting extraordinary amounts of money into the economy.
Obama, Like GOP, Wins, Loses In Tax-Cut Deal
In signing the tax-cut extension into law, Obama failed to keep a key campaign vow. So did the GOP.
That's fine with Dyke Messinger of PowerCurbers Inc., in Salisbury, N.C. The company builds machines that make curbs and gutters for streets and highways.
"We're still down about 50 percent from where we were; the drop being mostly U.S. residential and commercial construction," he says.
With construction in the dumps, the U.S. demand for Messinger's machines has largely come from federal stimulus spending for infrastructure. He's worried about what will happen to orders when that fades in the next few months.
But, there is one bright spot: foreign sales.
"Our hopes for international business this coming year are really quite high. We think we can put another 20 percent on the top because of what's going on in the rest of the world," he says.
Foreign sales have been good for a lot of big U.S. multinationals, too, from MacDonald's to Hewlett Packard. That's behind the recent big jump in the stock market, which has seemed somewhat out of sync with progress in the U.S. economy.
Whether the U.S. recovery is self-sustaining remains in question. But the new tax package, with a couple hundred billion dollars in added stimulus, should help it gain traction.
-From NPR's website
http://ping.fm/9AXX3
George J. Dramis III
George J. Dramis, III, born in Ft. Knox, Kentucky, May 5, 1965; admitted to The Florida Bar, 1992; U. S. District Court for the Middle District of Florida; and U. S. Court of Appeals for the First and Eleventh Circuits.
Education / Honors: University of Florida (B.S. with honors, 1987; J.D., 1991); Honored as the top performer on The Florida Bar Exam for the Fifth District and in the top five of all participants in the Spring, 1992 Florida Bar Exam; Inns of Court. Listed in Florida Super Lawyers published by Law & Politics which recognizes the top five percent of all lawyers in Florida under the category of Construction/Surety; Board Certified in Construction Law by the Florida Bar Board of Legal Specialization and Education.
Member: The Florida Bar; American Bar Association; Sarasota County Bar Association; the Florida Surety Association; and, Defense Research Institute.
Prior to attending law school, George was an internal auditor for one of the largest banking institutions in Florida. Upon receiving his J.D. from the University of Florida, he practiced in Orlando, Florida in the areas of insurance, construction and surety law. He moved to Sarasota in 1997 and continues his practice with a special focus on construction law. George has represented and advised owners, developers, contractors and subcontractors in all facets of the law concerning the avoidance and resolution of construction and surety disputes. He enjoys sport fishing, boating and attending sporting events. He is actively involved in community, religious and social organizations, including St. Martha’s Catholic Church and the Sarasota Yacht Club. George is a past member of Mote Marine Laboratory Advisory Board.
PRACTICE AREAS: Construction Law; Personal Injury Law; Surety Law; Insurance Defense; Insurance Coverage; Trial Practice.
Michael L. Morgan
Michael L. Morgan, born in San Diego, California, August 2, 1964; admitted to The Florida Bar, 1998, U. S. District Court for the Middle District of Florida, 1999.
Education / Honors: University of Florida (B.S. 1995); Southwestern University School of Law, Los Angeles, California (J.D. 1998); Interscholastic Trial Advocacy Program; Board of Governors (1997-1998).
Member: The Florida Bar; Sarasota County Bar Association.
Prior to attending law school, Mike founded StormFront Sports Management in Los Angeles for the purpose of representing amateur athletes as a sports agent. In its first year of existence, StormFront was able to obtain interest for its clients in the National Football League, as well as athletes who competed for the United States in the 1996 Olympic Games. During law school and until his graduation, Mike interned with the Los Angeles City Attorney, Civil Liability Division under the supervision of City Attorney, James K. Haan. Upon obtaining his JD from Southwestern University, Mike joined one of Sarasota’s largest law firms where he continued to practice civil trials and construction law cases. In 2005, Mike established his own Firm where he represented and advised owners, developers, contractors and subcontractors in virtually all facets of the law. Mike is an active community contributor and supporter of such organizations as The Cystic Fibrosis Foundation, John & Mable Ringling Museum of Art, and is a regular contributor to The Childrens’ Cancer Research Fund. Mike enjoys sport fishing, travel and good food.
PRACTICE AREAS: Construction Law; Personal Injury Law; Condominium Association representation; Business Litigation and Contract Disputes.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)